Admitting that the economy may be impacted if the monsoon is inadequate, the government on Monday said the growth rate in 2009 will not fall to the levels being projected by international agencies like the IMF and the World Bank.
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
In April, the World Bank had projected India's GDP would grow at 6.1 per cent in the current financial year and at 6.7 per cent the following year.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday slashed India's growth projection to 9.6 per cent for the 2021 calendar year, from its earlier estimate of 13.9 per cent, and said faster vaccination progress will be paramount in restricting economic losses to June quarter.
The Asian Development Bank said on Thursday it raised its 2002 growth forecast for the region's economies to 5.6 per cent, but trimmed its estimate for next year to the same rate as an export boom would tail off.
The Asian Development Bank too had projected Indian's economic growth for current fiscal at 7.4 per cent.
India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, a UN report has said, warning that the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse economic impacts globally. The UN 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable economies' said that Covid-19 is having far-reaching economic and social consequences for the region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial linkages.
State debt is rising because revenues are disappointingly weak. Ten states have debt ratios exceeding 30 per cent. In 2023-2024, states were borrowing simply to meet day-to-day expenses, points out Debashis Basu.
Advance estimates of national income growth released today by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) project it at 7.2 per cent in 2009-10, pegging it a notch below earlier forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India (7.5 per cent) and finance ministry (7.75 per cent). With economic growth back on track the government may initiate a phased withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus package.
Fitch Ratings on Monday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-', with a stable outlook, saying a strong record of delivering growth and improving fiscal credibility will drive improvements in structural metrics. "India's ratings are supported by its robust growth and solid external finances," Fitch said, as it forecast GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2026 (FY26), unchanged from FY25, and well above the 'BBB' median of 2.5 per cent.
Indian economy grew 7.9% in March quarter and recorded a five-year high growth rate of 7.6% for the 2015-16 fiscal
The exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar may delay the economy's rise to become the fourth-largest.
India's manufacturing sector activity witnessed a slight recovery in January, amid faster increase in new orders, even as business confidence slipped to its lowest level in three-and-a-half years, a monthly survey said on Monday.
Industrialists affirm their belief that the adverse effects of demonetisation and the goods and services tax are finally over.
The agency attributed the sharp revision to various high-frequency indicators showing a softness and partly blamed the same to reforms like GST, real estate regulation, and the bankruptcy code which are still a "drag" on the economy.
Citing faster-than-expected recovery, rising consumer confidence and the resultant spending spike, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised upwards its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent from 8.9 per cent in September. The brokerage also sees the economy clipping at 7.7 per cent in FY23 but moderating to 6 per cent in FY24, as it expects the benefit of the low-interest rate regime to end by the end of FY23, and it sees the central bank hiking policy rates by 50 bps in the second half of the next fiscal. The Reserve Bank also forecasts 9.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal while the average projection ranges from 8.5 to 10 per cent.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in June, it had trimmed the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent.
India is the second-most-preferred destination among chief executive officers planning international investments - up from the fifth spot last year, according to PwC's 29th Annual Global CEO Survey released on Tuesday. The United States is their first choice.
RBI cuts GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent for current financial year, from earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent.
Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate sentiment in the stock market next week, even as investors may remain cautious amid ongoing volatility, according to analysts.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
The RBI projection of 6.9 per cent GVA growth for the current fiscal comes on the back of the Economic Survey last week forecasting economic growth of 6.5 per cent.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Monday revised its projection of the GDP during 2003-04 to 8.2 per cent, much higher than the earlier forecast of 7.4 per cent.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast to 5.2 per cent for 2020, saying the global economy is entering a recession amid the coronavirus pandemic. The agency had earlier projected a growth rate of 5.7 per cent during the 2020 calendar.
India's GDP growth is likely to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 because the pent-up demand accumulated during Covid has exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. About the global economy, the IMF said the battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP forecast to minus 9.4 per cent in the current fiscal year from a previously projected contraction of 10.5 per cent after the economy staged a sharper rebound in the second quarter. In its Global Economic Outlook, Fitch said the coronavirus-induced recession inflicted severe economic scarring and the country needs to repair balance sheets and increase caution about long-term planning. "We now expect GDP to contract 9.4 per cent in the fiscal year to end March 2021 (plus 1.1 percentage point) followed by plus 11 per cent growth (unchanged) and plus 6.3 per cent growth in the following years," the rating agency said.
The change in stance to neutral from accommodative in the June monetary policy meeting does not necessarily signal that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) rate setting body - monetary policy committee (MPC) - will go on a prolonged pause on rate cuts going forward, believe experts.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
While there has been a rash of growth estimate cuts, including a 0.70 percentage point reduction by the RBI last month to 6.1 per cent, the Japanese brokerage's estimate is so far the lowest.
According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP expanded 9.5 per cent year-on-year, which is a decline compared to the 9.7 per cent rate achieved in the first quarter.
Global rating agency Fitch on Thursday affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook on strong growth outlook and fiscal credibility. Fitch said India is set to remain among the fastest-growing sovereigns globally with GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year and 6.5 per cent in FY26, down from 8.2 per cent in FY24. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," the global rating agency said in a statement.
The shares of Titan Company hit its all-time high on the BSE and was the top gainer in the Sensex on Wednesday after the company released its business update for the third quarter of 2025-26 (Q3FY26). The stock closed at 4,272, up 3.94 per cent as compared to the Sensex, which was a tad down.
Even if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold interest rates in the October meeting, it acknowledged the scope for further rate cuts while waiting for the impact of the past steps to play out.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. "For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas," IMF said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The surge in investment in manufacturing seems to have prompted the International Monetary Fund to increase the gross domestic product growth forecast to 8.4 per cent for 2007.
HSBC cut its GDP forecast for the year ending in March to 5.2 per cent from 5.7 per cent, and its forecast for the next fiscal year to 6.2 per cent from 6.9 per cent, according to a report released on Thursday.
China's economy grew 6.7 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier.
The National Council of Applied Economic Research has revised its forecast for the country's gross domestic product growth for 2006-07 to 8.44 per cent
